WEATHER BEAT: Warm September Leads to Much Cooler Autumn

| September 4, 2013 | 0 Comments | Weather

As the nights grow longer, the school buses start rolling and we head back to our normal routines after a long and enjoyable summer, we must look ahead and prepare for what’s in store for the next three months.

The thought of autumn can be quite ludicrous, as many of you may recall last year when we literally went straight from summer into winter. A lot of my followers have been asking me if we will actually have a fall this year. My answer is always the same; yes we will, and it will run from Sept. 22 through Dec. 20.

Keep in mind that early September is still considered “summer,” and I am expecting summer-like temperatures throughout the first half of September. We will also continue our summertime pattern with thunderstorms occurring every few days. I am expecting things to begin to turn cooler as we get into the final week of September. Note that by the end of September, the average high is only in the low to mid 70s, so it will naturally get cooler as the month progresses. In terms of precipitation in September, I am expecting average precipitation.

As we get into October, the first full month of autumn, things begin to change. The month begins seasonably cool with highs near 70 degrees. Then we will see a shot of cooler air come down and create a very autumnal feel with highs in the 60s. Some models are even indicating that we will see several shots of reinforcing cold air as we get into the middle of October, which could bring cooler-than-average temperatures for much of the second half of the month. I am expecting average rainfall in October. I am not expecting any snow locally, but some models indicate that higher elevations could see their first snow in October, which is actually not that unusual.

Now let’s take a look at November. It is still several months away, but indications show that we will see temperatures near average, which is about 55 degrees in November. I am expecting average amounts of precipitation. I am not expecting any significant snowfall in November, but the chance for light amounts of snow by Thanksgiving are possible.

The big thing that a lot of people are interested in as we get into autumn is when they will see the most fall color. Locally, we are expecting to see peak colors in the second and third weeks of October, but portions of the Appalachian Mountains could see fall colors as soon as late September.

One thing you may not be thinking about is the tropics, which could be a big mistake. All indications show that the African flow is beginning, which means several storms off the coast of Africa have their eyes on the United States, especially the east coast, which we continue to warn, has a high chance of seeing something tropical before this season ends on Nov. 30. Also, warmer than average temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean are also worrisome.

I hope everybody has an enjoyable autumn. This is my favorite season of the year, and I’m sure I’m not alone. Have a great fall and a successful school year!

Note that long range forecasts are general overviews of an extended period of time. Be sure to check out my daily forecasts on Facebook for the latest weather information.

“My favorite thing to do is study the weather. It is truly fascinating. Nothing beats a good thunderstorm. I became very interested in weather when I lived in Okinawa, Japan, for four years and was actually inside a super typhoon.”

Please check out my Facebook page for daily, local weather exclusive to Western Prince William County.

© 2013, Bristow Beat. All rights reserved.

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