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WEATHER BEAT: Average Temps, Near Average Snow this Winter

| December 5, 2016 | 0 Comments | Weather

weatherbeatlogo“I believe that December will be the transition month from mild weather to much cooler weather in January through March.”

I made that statement in my first installment of this Winter Weather Outlook back in early November, and a month later, it looks like it is actually coming to fruition.

Usually in October, you start to get a general feel for how winter might be, but by December, you start to see more confidence in the models as you are beginning to see what is actually taking shape.

Let’s begin by discussing my long term forecast for the remainder of December. Beginning December 8, we clearly see a new pattern setting up where temperatures are below average and will likely remain below average for the rest of the month. In fact, most days in the second half of December will only see highs in the 30s and 40s.

Precipitation types in December will feature cases in which rain changes to sleet or snow, but no major snowstorms should be expected this month. If we do receive any snow, it will not amount to much. My estimated snowfall total is now two to four inches for December. That may be too optimistic.

During the months of January and February, I expect temperatures to range from five degrees above average to ten degrees below average, with a few occasional extremes. Precipitation for these months will be similar to December where rain changes to sleet or snow, reducing the risk of a major snowstorm. I expect to see anywhere from four to eight inches of snow in January and eight to twelve inches of snow in February.

In terms of a major snowstorm this winter, it is almost impossible to predict. Based on what I forecast for each month, the new estimated snowfall total for this winter is 25 to 30 inches of snow. Now, if we get a perfect snowstorm setup, we could theoretically demolish my snowfall total prediction in a single day. For instance, nobody imagined receiving three to four feet of snow from a single event last year. In fact, that was essentially our only snow last winter with the exception of a few minor bouts of snow. We will likely see a lot more of that this winter.

I will save my March outlook for my third installment of the Winter Weather Outlook. Stay tuned for future updates regarding potential winter storms.

My favorite thing to do is study the weather. It is truly fascinating. Nothing beats a good thunderstorm. I became very interested in weather when I lived in Okinawa, Japan for four years and was actually inside a super typhoon.

Please check out my Facebook page for daily, local weather exclusive to Western Prince William County.

© 2016, Bristow Beat. All rights reserved.

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