COVID-19 Continues to Disproportionately Affect Some Areas of Prince William County

COVID Cases in Virginia plotted by date. (Virginia Depart. of Health, Aug. 11, 2020)

Prince William localities continue to have some of the highest COVID-19 positive numbers in the Commonwealth of Virginia, and minority neighborhoods have been the hardest hit. As the Governor warns of increases in COVID-19 cases along the eastern shore, Northern Virginia still leads the state in COVID-19 cases.

Prince William County has been second behind Fairfax County in number of positive cases, according to the Virginia Dept. of Health. It has had 9,566 positive cases, as of Aug. 10, 804 hospitalizations, and 176 deaths. Those numbers differ greatly across zip codes.

Comparative cases of COVID-19 in Virginia by counties and jurisdictions. (Virginia Dept. of Health, Aug. 11, 2020.)

As of Monday, Eastern Woodbridge (22191) had a positivity rate of 2189, the highest in the state; Woodbridge/Dale City (22193) had a positivity number of 1980. The City of Manassas (20110) had a positivity rate of 1778. Manassas, Prince William (20109) including the areas of Sudley Road and Route 28, has a positive number of 1,368.

Manassas Prince William has a population of 37,265, which is 53.9% Hispanic; its median family income is 65K, according to ZipDataMaps. Woodbridge’s 22191 population is 46.9% Hispanic, 28.16% white and approximately 20% black. The average household income is $62K according to ZipDataMaps (or $79K according to UnitedStatesZipCodes.org) and a population density of 3,643 people per square mile.

Information from the Virginia Department of Health shows that Latinos are testing positive for COVID-19 at a higher rate than any other ethnic group in Virginia.

Cases by ethnicity in Virginia.

Meanwhile, more white suburban neighborhoods just a few miles away have seen much fewer positive COVID-19 results. Bristow/Linton Hall (20136), where there have been 299 positive cases, has a population of 28,498 population that is 62.63% white. Median household income $110K. Gainesville, which has similar demographics, has seen 365 cases. The Town of Haymarket (20169) has 152 and Nokesville, Prince William’s most rural locality, has had 61 positive cases.

However, even in the suburbs, Northern Virginia numbers are markedly higher than elsewhere in the state. Fairfax County has had 16,544 positive cases. Virginia Beach, Virginia’s most popular vacation destination, and a suburban area, has had 5,111. Rural areas by comparison have relatively few cases. All of Fauquier County has had 623. Madison County has 70 and Rappahannock 44.

Virginia experienced a second wave of COVID-19 cases over the summer. Numbers peaked on May 21 at a 1,036 seven day “moving average.” Those numbers fell to 478 on June 17. However, after progressing through stages of reopening, a second peak came for Virginia on July 15 when the seven-day moving average rose to 1,085. The current moving average was 821 on Aug. 7 and positive tests are once again on the decline.

Places where COVID-19 numbers have been highest in the area have not changed. Woodbridge (22191) had 873 cases on May 19, making the highest number in the state. Generally, areas have seen their numbers multiplied by 2.5-3.3 times since May 19.

Testing has increased, allowing more accurate account of the numbers of positive cases but deaths have also increased.

COVID-19 Cases in Virginia by Age (Virginia Dept. of Health, Aug. 11, 2020)

Age has also become a key factor in who is contracting COVID-19. Young people are the least likely to die from COVID-19, but recently the most likely to test positive for it. This may be attributed to high survival rates leads to the population feeling more comfortable participating in more risky behaviors such as going out to crowded places with others.

Those in their 20s are testing positive at the highest rate in Virginia. The numbers slope down for every decade with people over 80, the most at risk group, showing the least positive numbers.

The exception is children and teens. Children are showing the least positive results with teens following. Young people are most likely to be asymptomatic and thus most likely not be tested for COVID-19 at a high rate. Even if asymptomatic people can still be carriers of COVID-19 and that includes children.

Total Deaths from COVID-19 reported in Virginia, and organized by date. (Virginia Dept. of Health, Aug. 11.)

Deaths from COVID-19 has come in waves. The number of deaths peaked at 45 on May 27. Virginia then began to flatten the curve and came to an all-time low of 9 on June 22, with a similar seven-day average. Virginia reached a second peak on July 3 at 20. On August 6, the state peaked again at 25. These rates align overall with the number of positive cases in the Commonwealth.

Most numbers were compiled on Aug. 11, 2020. Numbers by zip codes were compiled on Aug. 10.